Voluntary retirement savings in China: A spatial ordered probit approach

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Regional Science and Urban Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI:10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2025.104090

Yong Bao , Timothy N. Bond , Ruiting Sun , Xueping Xiong

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper employs a spatial ordered probit model to study people’s voluntary retirement savings decisions using survey data collected in 2017 in China, where savings are recorded in a set of discrete ordered categories. To account for spillover effects and cross-sectional correlations, induced by for example omitted factors, we construct spatial connectivity matrices based on age and education for people located in the same province. We estimate the model using a Bayeisan scheme and discuss how to calculate various marginal effects, including those from nonstandard covariates like squared, binary, and multicategorical variables. Our empirical results indicate strong evidence of positive correlation in voluntary retirement savings decisions among high-income and low-income workers in both rural and urban areas. We find that participation in the government-managed basic pension is the strongest predictor of having high voluntary retirement savings, while the effects of income and gender vary across income-area groups.

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中国自愿退休储蓄：空间有序probit方法

本文采用一种空间有序probit模型，利用2017年在中国收集的调查数据研究人们自愿退休储蓄决策，其中储蓄被记录在一组离散有序类别中。为了解释溢出效应和横断面相关性，例如被忽略的因素，我们构建了基于年龄和教育程度的空间连通性矩阵。我们使用贝叶斯方案估计模型，并讨论如何计算各种边际效应，包括非标准协变量（如平方，二进制和多分类变量）的边际效应。我们的实证结果表明，在农村和城市地区的高收入和低收入工人中，自愿退休储蓄决策具有很强的正相关性。我们发现，参加政府管理的基本养老金是拥有高自愿退休储蓄的最强预测指标，而收入和性别的影响因收入区域群体而异。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Regional Science and Urban Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

9.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： Regional Science and Urban Economics facilitates and encourages high-quality scholarship on important issues in regional and urban economics. It publishes significant contributions that are theoretical or empirical, positive or normative. It solicits original papers with a spatial dimension that can be of interest to economists. Empirical papers studying causal mechanisms are expected to propose a convincing identification strategy.