Bayesian Optimization of insect trap distribution for pest monitoring efficiency in agroecosystems.

Abstract

Insect trap networks targeting agricultural pests are commonplace but seldom optimized to improve precision or efficiency. Trap site selection is often driven by user convenience or predetermined trap densities relative to sensitive host crop abundance in the landscape. Monitoring for invasive pests often requires expedient decisions based on dispersal potential and ecology to inform trap placement. Optimization of trap networks using contemporary analytical approaches can help users determine the distribution of traps as information accumulates and priorities change. In this study, a Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm was used to learn more about the optimal distribution of a fine-scale trap network targeting Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), a significant agricultural pest across North America. Four years of pheromone trap monitoring was conducted at the same 21 locations distributed across ~7,000 square kilometers in a five-county area in North Carolina, USA. Three years of data were used to train a BO model with a fourth year designated for testing. For any quantity of trap locations, the approach identified those that provide the most information, allowing optimization of trapping efficiency given either a constraint on the number of locations, or a set precision required for pest density estimation. Results suggest that BO is a powerful approach to enable optimized trap placement decisions by practitioners given finite resources and time.