Projected Climate Scenarios Reveal an Expanding Suitable Habitat for the Critically Endangered African White-Backed Vulture Gyps africanus预测的气候情景揭示了极危非洲白背兀鹫的适宜栖息地不断扩展

Abstract

Estimating the potential distribution of climatically suitable habitats for different species is important for developing targeted and adaptable biodiversity conservation strategies. However, such crucial information remains limited for obligate scavengers such as the Critically Endangered (CE) African White-backed Vulture (AWbVs) Gyps africanus. In this study, we applied two Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) algorithms, MaxEnt and BIOCLIM, within the Wallace interface to predict changes in the climatically suitable geographic ranges of the AWbVs under current, 2050, and 2070 climate scenarios in the Hwange ecosystem. Using 19 dynamic bioclimatic variables, five Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we modelled the potential impacts of climatic changes on AWbVs geographic ranges. This analysis incorporated 89,809 GPS occurrence data points collected from six AWbVs that were captured and tracked in Hwange National Park and its surrounding areas. Model performance was robust, with a high overall mean AUC of 0.89. Our results indicate that climatic suitability within protected areas is expected to remain stable under future climate change scenarios. In addition, models developed in this study suggest that suitable habitats for the AWbVs are expected to expand significantly by 2050 and 2070, extending towards human-dominated landscapes. Given the critical conservation status of the AWbVs, these findings offer valuable insights that can inform current and future conservation strategies.