Projected Climate Scenarios Reveal an Expanding Suitable Habitat for the Critically Endangered African White-Backed Vulture Gyps africanus预测的气候情景揭示了极危非洲白背兀鹫的适宜栖息地不断扩展

Mark Zvidzai, Fadzai M. Zengeya, Mhosisi Masocha, Amon Murwira, Paradzayi Tagwireyi
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Abstract

Estimating the potential distribution of climatically suitable habitats for different species is important for developing targeted and adaptable biodiversity conservation strategies. However, such crucial information remains limited for obligate scavengers such as the Critically Endangered (CE) African White-backed Vulture (AWbVs) Gyps africanus. In this study, we applied two Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) algorithms, MaxEnt and BIOCLIM, within the Wallace interface to predict changes in the climatically suitable geographic ranges of the AWbVs under current, 2050, and 2070 climate scenarios in the Hwange ecosystem. Using 19 dynamic bioclimatic variables, five Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we modelled the potential impacts of climatic changes on AWbVs geographic ranges. This analysis incorporated 89,809 GPS occurrence data points collected from six AWbVs that were captured and tracked in Hwange National Park and its surrounding areas. Model performance was robust, with a high overall mean AUC of 0.89. Our results indicate that climatic suitability within protected areas is expected to remain stable under future climate change scenarios. In addition, models developed in this study suggest that suitable habitats for the AWbVs are expected to expand significantly by 2050 and 2070, extending towards human-dominated landscapes. Given the critical conservation status of the AWbVs, these findings offer valuable insights that can inform current and future conservation strategies.

Abstract Image

Projected Climate Scenarios Reveal an Expanding Suitable Habitat for the Critically Endangered African White-Backed Vulture Gyps africanus预测的气候情景揭示了极危非洲白背兀鹫的适宜栖息地不断扩展
估算不同物种气候适宜生境的潜在分布,对于制定针对性强、适应性强的生物多样性保护策略具有重要意义。然而,对于专性食腐动物,如极度濒危的非洲白背秃鹫(AWbVs)非洲Gyps,这些关键信息仍然有限。本研究采用MaxEnt和BIOCLIM两种物种分布建模(SDM)算法,在Wallace界面中预测了当前、2050年和2070年气候情景下万基生态系统awbv气候适宜地理范围的变化。利用19个动态生物气候变量、5个全球环流模式(GCMs)和2个代表性浓度路径(rcp),模拟了气候变化对awbv地理范围的潜在影响。该分析结合了从万基国家公园及其周边地区捕获和跟踪的六辆awbv收集的89,809个GPS发生数据点。模型性能稳健,总体平均AUC高达0.89。研究结果表明,在未来气候变化情景下,保护区气候适宜性将保持稳定。此外,本研究建立的模型表明,到2050年和2070年,awbv的适宜栖息地预计将显著扩大,向人类主导的景观延伸。考虑到AWbVs的重要保护地位,这些发现为当前和未来的保护策略提供了有价值的见解。
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