Ramp Rate Metric Suitable for Solar Forecasting

IF 6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS
Solar RRL Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI:10.1002/solr.202400468
Bijan Nouri, Yann Fabel, Niklas Blum, Dominik Schnaus, Luis F. Zarzalejo, Andreas Kazantzidis, Stefan Wilbert
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Abstract

Solar irradiance forecasting plays a crucial role in integrating large quantities of intermittent solar power. Forecasting systems are commonly evaluated using metrics like root-mean- square error (RMSE) and skill scores. However, these metrics aggregated over larger data sets do not adequately assess the prediction of ramp events, which are critical for many applications. This article introduces a novel, simple, and adaptable ramp rate metric that analyzes ramp events between successive lead times within forecasts. A case study on ramp rate mitigation in PV systems benchmarks suitable ramp thresholds for various solar irradiance components. The capabilities and limitations of deterministic and probabilistic forecasts from two all-sky imager-based models are evaluated for ramp prediction. A state-of-the-art data-driven vision transformer End2End model excels in RMSE and skill scores but performs poorly in ramp prediction. Conversely, a novel generative forecasting model combined with a convolutional neural network-based irradiance model shows superior ramp prediction, achieving an F1 score of ≥0.7 for critical ramp events. This study underscores the importance of suitable ramp rate metrics and highlights the potential of generative models for enhancing ramp forecasting.

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来源期刊
Solar RRL
Solar RRL Physics and Astronomy-Atomic and Molecular Physics, and Optics
CiteScore
12.10
自引率
6.30%
发文量
460
期刊介绍: Solar RRL, formerly known as Rapid Research Letters, has evolved to embrace a broader and more encompassing format. We publish Research Articles and Reviews covering all facets of solar energy conversion. This includes, but is not limited to, photovoltaics and solar cells (both established and emerging systems), as well as the development, characterization, and optimization of materials and devices. Additionally, we cover topics such as photovoltaic modules and systems, their installation and deployment, photocatalysis, solar fuels, photothermal and photoelectrochemical solar energy conversion, energy distribution, grid issues, and other relevant aspects. Join us in exploring the latest advancements in solar energy conversion research.
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