Estimating potential climate change effects on pollinating insects: A multi-taxa study in the Republic of Korea

Abstract

The impact of climate change on insects, particularly pollinators such as bees, butterflies, moths and hoverflies, has been the focus of numerous studies. In this context, recognizing a gap in research on pollinators in the Republic of Korea, we employed species distribution models (SDMs) to assess the potential impacts of climate change on 206 species of pollinating insects in the Republic of Korea under two climate change scenarios: SSP245 and SSP585. Our results showed that under the SSP245 scenario, two bee species are projected to increase by 24.3% on average, whereas five species will decrease by 61.3%. For butterflies, 12 species will increase by 144.6%, whereas 35 species will decrease by 86.1%. For hoverflies, six species will increase by 75.7% and 13 species will decrease by 68.8%. For moths, 37 species will increase by 131% and 96 species will decrease by 90.8%. Under the worst-case climate change scenario (SSP585), one bee species is expected to see its distribution range increase by an average of 161%, whereas six other species might experience a reduction of 73.2% on average. For butterflies, 15 species are projected to expand their range by an average of 157%, whereas 32 species could face an average decrease of 89.7%. In the case of hoverflies, ten species are anticipated to grow their distribution range by 117.9% on average, whereas nine species might decrease by an average of 90.8%. Lastly, for moths, 38 species are expected to expand their range by an average of 199%, whereas 95 species could contract their range by an average of 87%.