The effect of mandated savings on private consumption: Evidence from Israel's pension reform

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS

Research in Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-30 DOI:10.1016/j.rie.2025.101038

Roni Frish

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the Government Mandatory Pension Order (GMPO) on household consumption. The GMPO, which came into force in Israel in 2008, required contributing to a pension fund at a gradually increasing rate, up to 17.5 percent of wages in 2014 and afterwards. The study uses a diff-in-diff method to compare the development of household consumption expenditure where the household heads did not contribute to a pension fund before 2008 (“Treated”), with that of a group doing so willingly before 2008 ("Control"). The data sources are Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics’ annual Household Expenditure Surveys for the period 2004 through 2016 and Israel Tax Authority data on personal pension contributions. The study rejects the null hypothesis that the treatment has null effect on the consumption of the treated group in the treatment period. However, since the p-value is between 0.05–0.10 the study could not reject the null hypothesis for the conventional p-value threshold of 0.05.

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强制性储蓄对私人消费的影响：来自以色列养老金改革的证据

本研究探讨政府强制性退休金令（GMPO）对家庭消费的影响。GMPO于2008年在以色列生效，要求以逐步增加的比率向养老基金缴款，2014年及以后的比例最高可达工资的17.5%。本研究采用“差中差”的方法，比较2008年前户主未向养老基金缴费（“已缴费”）与2008年前自愿缴费（“对照组”）的家庭消费支出发展情况。数据来源是以色列中央统计局2004年至2016年的年度家庭支出调查和以色列税务局关于个人养老金缴款的数据。该研究拒绝了治疗对治疗组在治疗期间的消费没有影响的原假设。然而，由于p值在0.05 - 0.10之间，因此研究不能拒绝常规p值阈值0.05的原假设。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Research in Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.40

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

89 days

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