Weakened future surface warming in China due to national planned afforestation through biophysical feedback

IF 8.5 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI:10.1038/s41612-025-00915-2

Shuaifeng Song, Xiaodong Yan, Xuezhen Zhang, Zhibo Gao, Wenqiang Xie

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Abstract

A national-level afforestation plan has been announced by the Chinese government to combat global warming through carbon sequestration. However, the biophysical feedback of afforestation under future climate scenarios has not yet been assessed. Here, using the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) nested by the bias-corrected MPI-ESM1-2-HR model, we simulated how future afforestation regulated the land surface temperature (LST) in China. The results show that afforestation induces a significant cooling effect over the period 2041–2060 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, in particular in the cold season. The additional cooling effect offsets about 3.69% of the projected LST increase due to global warming and even overcompensates the LST increase in southwestern China. On the diurnal cycles, afforestation induces daytime cooling effects of −0.21 °C caused by increased latent heat fluxes, while nighttime warming effects of 0.05 °C induced mainly by cloud feedback. Our findings highlight the importance of the scientific identification of afforestation areas when developing land-management strategies and biophysical feedback for climate change mitigation.

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.