Power System Reliability Evaluation Based on Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation Considering Multiple Failure Modes of Components

Abstract

The component aging has become a significant concern worldwide, and the frequent failures pose a serious threat to the reliability of modern power systems. In light of this issue, this paper presents a power system reliability evaluation method based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation (SMCS) to quantify system reliability considering multiple failure modes of components. First, a three-state component reliability model is established to explicitly describe the state transition process of the component subject to both aging failure and random failure modes. In this model, the impact of each failure mode is decoupled and characterized as the combination of two state duration variables, which are separately modeled using specific probability distributions. Subsequently, SMCS is used to integrate the three-state component reliability model for state transition sequence generation and system reliability evaluation. Therefore, various reliability metrics, including the probability of load curtailment (PLC), expected frequency of load curtailment (EFLC), and expected energy not supplied (EENS), can be estimated. To ensure the applicability of the proposed method, Hash table grouping and the maximum feasible load level judgment techniques are jointly adopted to enhance its computational performance. Case studies are conducted on different aging scenarios to illustrate and validate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed method.