Downside belief disagreements and financial instability: Evidence from risk factor disclosures in U.S. financial institutions’ 10-K filings

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI:10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102118

Rui Li , Jianping Li , Xiaoqian Zhu

引用次数: 0

Abstract

At what point does the shift from a stable to an unstable financial system occur? This study develops the first measurement of downside belief disagreements by utilizing the qualitative disclosures of risk factors in U.S. financial institutions’ 10-K filings. We show that the transition into financial instability occurs with a large increase in downside belief disagreements. Notably, it is not only downside belief disagreements but also its interaction with rapid credit expansion that matters for financial stability risks. We further conduct mechanism tests and find that downside belief disagreements harm financial stability by imposing credit constraints and price reductions.

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下行信念分歧和金融不稳定：来自美国金融机构10-K文件中风险因素披露的证据

金融体系从稳定到不稳定的转变发生在什么时候？本研究通过利用美国金融机构10-K文件中风险因素的定性披露，开发了下行信念分歧的第一个测量。我们发现，随着下行信念分歧的大幅增加，向金融不稳定的过渡发生了。值得注意的是，对金融稳定风险至关重要的，不仅是对下行信念的分歧，还有其与快速信贷扩张的相互作用。我们进一步进行了机制测试，发现下行信念分歧通过施加信贷约束和价格降低来损害金融稳定。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Multiple-

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

10.00%

发文量

142

期刊介绍： International trade, financing and investments, and the related cash and credit transactions, have grown at an extremely rapid pace in recent years. The international monetary system has continued to evolve to accommodate the need for foreign-currency denominated transactions and in the process has provided opportunities for its ongoing observation and study. The purpose of the Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money is to publish rigorous, original articles dealing with the international aspects of financial markets, institutions and money. Theoretical/conceptual and empirical papers providing meaningful insights into the subject areas will be considered. The following topic areas, although not exhaustive, are representative of the coverage in this Journal. • International financial markets • International securities markets • Foreign exchange markets • Eurocurrency markets • International syndications • Term structures of Eurocurrency rates • Determination of exchange rates • Information, speculation and parity • Forward rates and swaps • International payment mechanisms • International commercial banking; • International investment banking • Central bank intervention • International monetary systems • Balance of payments.