The crypto collapse chronicles: Decoding cryptocurrency exchange defaults

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI:10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102093

Niranjan Sapkota

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This research explores the factors contributing to the failure of cryptocurrency exchanges by analyzing a sample of 845 exchanges. Using logit and probit models, it identifies key variables affecting cryptocurrency exchange defaults. The results show that cryptocurrency exchanges that are centralized, located in countries with high transparency indices, and offer fewer peer cryptocurrencies are more likely to default. Additionally, exchanges that impose high withdrawal fees and have no restrictions on clients from the United States are also positively associated with defaults. Moreover, the absence of referral schemes and having lower ratings each contributes marginally to defaults. Machine learning (ML) models including random forest, support vector machine, stacked ensemble confirm the robustness and high predictability of cryptocurrency exchange defaults.

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加密货币崩溃编年史：解码加密货币交换默认值

本研究通过分析845家交易所的样本，探讨了导致加密货币交易所失败的因素。使用logit和probit模型，它确定了影响加密货币交换默认值的关键变量。结果表明，集中、位于透明度指数高的国家、提供较少同行加密货币的加密货币交易所更有可能违约。此外，对来自美国的客户征收高额提现费且没有限制的交易所也与违约呈正相关。此外，缺乏推荐机制和评级较低都对违约有轻微影响。包括随机森林、支持向量机、堆叠集成在内的机器学习（ML）模型证实了加密货币交换默认值的鲁棒性和高可预测性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money Multiple-

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

10.00%

发文量

142

期刊介绍： International trade, financing and investments, and the related cash and credit transactions, have grown at an extremely rapid pace in recent years. The international monetary system has continued to evolve to accommodate the need for foreign-currency denominated transactions and in the process has provided opportunities for its ongoing observation and study. The purpose of the Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money is to publish rigorous, original articles dealing with the international aspects of financial markets, institutions and money. Theoretical/conceptual and empirical papers providing meaningful insights into the subject areas will be considered. The following topic areas, although not exhaustive, are representative of the coverage in this Journal. • International financial markets • International securities markets • Foreign exchange markets • Eurocurrency markets • International syndications • Term structures of Eurocurrency rates • Determination of exchange rates • Information, speculation and parity • Forward rates and swaps • International payment mechanisms • International commercial banking; • International investment banking • Central bank intervention • International monetary systems • Balance of payments.