Diverse vegetation response to meteorological drought from propagation perspective using event matching method

Abstract

Climate change has led to increased frequency, duration, and severity of meteorological drought (MD) events worldwide, causing significant and irreversible damage to terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding the impact of MD on diverse vegetation types is essential for ecological security and restoration. This study investigated vegetation responses to MD through a drought propagation framework, focusing on the Yangtze River Basin in China, which has been stricken by drought frequently in recent decades. By analyzing propagation characteristics, we assessed the sensitivity and vulnerability of different vegetation types to drought. Using Copula modeling, the occurrence probability of vegetation loss (VL) under varying MD conditions was estimated. Key findings include: (1) The majority of the Yangtze River Basin showed a high rate of MD to VL propagation. (2) Different vegetation types exhibited varied responses: woodlands had relatively low sensitivity and vulnerability, grasslands showed medium sensitivity with high vulnerability, while croplands demonstrated high sensitivity and moderate vulnerability. (3) The risk of extreme VL increased sharply with rising MD intensity. This framework and its findings could provide valuable insights for understanding vegetation responses to drought and inform strategies for managing vegetation loss.