The comparative influence of climate change and demography in spatially distributed degree-day projections for France in the 21st century

IF 4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100539

Sylvain Cros , Philippe Drobinski , Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet , Johann Meulemans

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Abstract

Heating and cooling in households account for half of global energy use and a significant part of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These figures are expected to change significantly under the joint influence of climate change and demography. We assessed the respective contribution of each of these processes in mainland France, a country presenting heterogeneous climate and currently low ownership of air conditioners. We projected heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) up to 2100 using EURO-CORDEX simulations and considering three sources of uncertainty: three different methods for computing HDD and CDD; two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5); and two population projections. We found a net increase in energy demand by 2100, driven by a slight decrease in HDDs and a strong increase in CDDs. Climate and population have a similar influence on net aggregate energy demand, however with statistically significant differences from a French department to an other. In particular, climate change has a particularly strong influence on HDDs in Atlantic and Mediterranean coastal regions after 2070. In turn, CDDs appear more evenly impacted by climate change and population increase, except in Southern cities where population is growing fast. In any case, the ranking between the two influences is strongly sensitive to population projections scenarios. This influence distinction is useful to apply a differentiated energy policy: energy efficiency measures are more effective for climate-driven demand increases, while behavioural policies are better suited for population-driven ones.

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21世纪法国空间分布度日预估中气候变化和人口统计学的比较影响

家庭供暖和制冷占全球能源使用量的一半，也是全球温室气体（GHG）排放的重要组成部分。在气候变化和人口统计的共同影响下，预计这些数字将发生重大变化。我们评估了这些过程在法国大陆各自的贡献，这是一个气候不均匀且目前空调拥有率较低的国家。我们使用EURO-CORDEX模拟并考虑三种不确定性来源，预测了到2100年的加热度日（HDD）和冷却度日（CDD）：计算HDD和CDD的三种不同方法；两种排放情景（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）；还有两个人口预测。我们发现，到2100年，由于硬盘驱动器的小幅下降和硬盘驱动器的强劲增长，能源需求将出现净增长。气候和人口对净总能源需求有相似的影响，但在统计上，法国各部门之间存在显著差异。特别是，2070年以后，气候变化对大西洋和地中海沿岸地区hdd的影响尤为强烈。反过来，除了人口快速增长的南方城市外，cdd似乎更均匀地受到气候变化和人口增长的影响。无论如何，这两种影响之间的排名对人口预测情景非常敏感。这种影响区分有助于实施差异化的能源政策：能效措施对气候驱动的需求增长更为有效，而行为政策则更适合于人口驱动的需求增长。

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来源期刊

Climate Services Multiple-

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

15.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： The journal Climate Services publishes research with a focus on science-based and user-specific climate information underpinning climate services, ultimately to assist society to adapt to climate change. Climate Services brings science and practice closer together. The journal addresses both researchers in the field of climate service research, and stakeholders and practitioners interested in or already applying climate services. It serves as a means of communication, dialogue and exchange between researchers and stakeholders. Climate services pioneers novel research areas that directly refer to how climate information can be applied in methodologies and tools for adaptation to climate change. It publishes best practice examples, case studies as well as theories, methods and data analysis with a clear connection to climate services. The focus of the published work is often multi-disciplinary, case-specific, tailored to specific sectors and strongly application-oriented. To offer a suitable outlet for such studies, Climate Services journal introduced a new section in the research article type. The research article contains a classical scientific part as well as a section with easily understandable practical implications for policy makers and practitioners. The journal''s focus is on the use and usability of climate information for adaptation purposes underpinning climate services.