Exploring resilient alternatives in community energy systems planning to address parameter and structural hybrid uncertainties

IF 10.5 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2025-01-22 DOI:10.1016/j.scs.2025.106161

Ruiyu Zhang , Zheng Li , Pei Liu , Adam D. Hawkes

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Community energy systems globally are undergoing profound revolution towards sustainability, but face significant uncertainties from varying community conditions and differing preferences of decision-makers. While stochastic programming addresses parameter uncertainties effectively, growing attention has been directed towards “modelling to generate alternatives” (MGA), which provides diverse near-cost-optimal solutions to accommodate the varied needs of decision-makers beyond the limits of finite model structures. However, it is rarely recognized that these alternatives may differ significantly beyond economics, particularly in system resilience to renewable fluctuations, posing risks in achieving a sustainable and reliable community energy future through diversification. By introducing “modeling to generate resilience” (MGR), we propose a hierarchical algorithm and a quantile sampling to identify diverse and resilient alternatives, addressing both parameter uncertainty in renewables and structural uncertainty arising from model imperfections. With a campus community case, we find alternatives generated by tradition MGA may experience resilience degradation, while the modified algorithm ensures both diversity and resilience, reducing the average energy deficiency by 65%. Quantile sampling reveals four resilience characteristics within near-optimal space, navigating decision-makers in flexibly adjusting technology installations while ensuring system resilience. This offers practical insights for reliable energy infrastructure deployment under hybrid uncertainties incorporating diverse decision preferences and variable real-world conditions.

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来源期刊

Sustainable Cities and Society Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

22.00

自引率

13.70%

发文量

810

审稿时长

27 days

期刊介绍： Sustainable Cities and Society (SCS) is an international journal that focuses on fundamental and applied research to promote environmentally sustainable and socially resilient cities. The journal welcomes cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary research in various areas, including: 1. Smart cities and resilient environments; 2. Alternative/clean energy sources, energy distribution, distributed energy generation, and energy demand reduction/management; 3. Monitoring and improving air quality in built environment and cities (e.g., healthy built environment and air quality management); 4. Energy efficient, low/zero carbon, and green buildings/communities; 5. Climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban environments; 6. Green infrastructure and BMPs; 7. Environmental Footprint accounting and management; 8. Urban agriculture and forestry; 9. ICT, smart grid and intelligent infrastructure; 10. Urban design/planning, regulations, legislation, certification, economics, and policy; 11. Social aspects, impacts and resiliency of cities; 12. Behavior monitoring, analysis and change within urban communities; 13. Health monitoring and improvement; 14. Nexus issues related to sustainable cities and societies; 15. Smart city governance; 16. Decision Support Systems for trade-off and uncertainty analysis for improved management of cities and society; 17. Big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence applications and case studies; 18. Critical infrastructure protection, including security, privacy, forensics, and reliability issues of cyber-physical systems. 19. Water footprint reduction and urban water distribution, harvesting, treatment, reuse and management; 20. Waste reduction and recycling; 21. Wastewater collection, treatment and recycling; 22. Smart, clean and healthy transportation systems and infrastructure;