Vision for Indonesia's 2050 power generation: Scenarios of hydrogen integration, nuclear energy prospects, and coal phase-out impact

Abstract

Indonesia's energy sector faces critical challenges due to its heavy reliance on coal as the dominant power source, which contributes to environmental degradation and rising CO₂ emissions, resulting into transition needs for renewable energy as targeted inside Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs) 2060. In addition to these, hydrogen energy also shows great potential for Indonesia's energy needs. However, to date there are no extensive research in Indonesia that simulate the effect of hydrogen incorporation and coal phase-out policy for 2050 power generation system, making this research a critical contribution to the exploration of Indonesia's energy landscape. This study utilizes the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). There are four simulated power generation scenarios in this study: the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the hydrogen incorporation (HYD) scenario, the coal phase-out (CPO) scenario and the progressive (PRO) scenario. The analysis indicates that the BAU scenario emerges as the most cost-effective approach for meeting Indonesia's future electricity demand. However, due to its inability to fulfill NDCs, the CPO scenario is shown to be more viable from practical and cost perspectives, requiring 406.9 GW capacity and USD 114.6 billion investment. On the contrary, The HYD scenario largely aligns Indonesia's hydrogen target, potentially contributing 1–5 % of energy demand and reducing coal reliance. Additionally, while the PRO scenario has the highest investment cost (USD 151.4 billion), it also provides the lowest plant capacities (367.1 GW), offering the highest output-to-capacity ratio. The result suggests the necessity to enact government collaboration and construct feasibility analysis to implement renewable energy development.