The impact of energy prices on electric vehicle adoption: From a perspective of consumer expectations

IF 3.3 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures Pub Date : 2025-01-10 DOI:10.1016/j.sftr.2025.100437

Xiaolei Zhao , Xuemei Li , Anqi Wang , Jianjun Fang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is critical to achieving sustainable transportation, yet the role of energy prices in shaping consumer decisions remains underexplored, particularly in terms of their relative effects. This study provides a methodological and empirical contribution to understanding the role of energy prices in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, a critical factor in advancing sustainable transportation. It employs a discrete choice model integrated with a regression discontinuity design to analyse the differential impacts of gasoline and electricity prices on EV adoption across 50 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2020. Methodologically, this approach allows for precise estimation of the causal effects of energy prices while controlling for potential confounding factors. Empirically, the study quantifies the relative influence of gasoline prices, which are found to have a significantly larger impact—approximately 3.5 to 6 times greater than electricity prices—on consumer adoption behaviour. Furthermore, it introduces an innovative framework to address consumer misperceptions of future electricity costs, estimating that up to 37 % of optimal EV subsidies are allocated to correcting these misjudgements. These findings offer novel insights for shaping more effective and sustainable transportation policies, bridging the gap between economic theory and real-world consumer behaviour.

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能源价格对电动汽车采用的影响：基于消费者预期的视角

电动汽车（ev）的迅速普及对于实现可持续交通至关重要，但能源价格在塑造消费者决策中的作用仍未得到充分探讨，特别是在其相对影响方面。该研究为理解能源价格在电动汽车（EV）采用中的作用提供了方法和实证贡献，这是促进可持续交通的关键因素。该研究采用离散选择模型与回归不连续设计相结合，分析了2010年至2020年中国50个城市汽油和电力价格对电动汽车采用的差异影响。在方法上，这种方法可以精确估计能源价格的因果关系，同时控制潜在的混杂因素。根据经验，该研究量化了汽油价格的相对影响，发现汽油价格对消费者采用行为的影响要大得多——大约是电价的3.5到6倍。此外，它引入了一个创新的框架来解决消费者对未来电力成本的误解，估计多达37%的最佳电动汽车补贴被分配给纠正这些错误判断。这些发现为制定更有效和可持续的交通政策提供了新的见解，弥合了经济理论与现实世界消费者行为之间的差距。

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来源期刊

Sustainable Futures Social Sciences-Sociology and Political Science

CiteScore

9.30

自引率

1.80%

发文量

审稿时长

71 days

期刊介绍： Sustainable Futures: is a journal focused on the intersection of sustainability, environment and technology from various disciplines in social sciences, and their larger implications for corporation, government, education institutions, regions and society both at present and in the future. It provides an advanced platform for studies related to sustainability and sustainable development in society, economics, environment, and culture. The scope of the journal is broad and encourages interdisciplinary research, as well as welcoming theoretical and practical research from all methodological approaches.