MOGGP: A novel multi objective geometric genetic programming model for drought forecasting

IF 3 3区地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Pub Date : 2025-01-30 DOI:10.1016/j.pce.2025.103879

Ali Danandeh Mehr , Masood Jabarnejad , Mir Jafar Sadegh Safari

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Drought is an environmental challenge, with devastating impacts across a wide range of sectors, including agriculture, economy, and ecosystems. Accurate drought forecasting models are necessary for sustainable water resources planning. Therefore, exploring the efficacy and parsimony of emerging machine learning (ML) techniques to enhance predictive drought forecasting models’ accuracy while reducing their complexity is essential. This article introduces a novel hybrid evolutionary ML model, called MOGGP, and compares its efficiency with two evolutionary models, namely gene expression programming and multigene genetic programming as well as conventional Multilayer Perceptron. The new model integrates multi-objective geometric mean optimizer with a traditional symbolic genetic programming that allows parsimonious model selection through developing Pareto optimal solutions. Grided Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) datasets were employed for demonstrating MOGGP and verifying its efficiency. The results showed that annual cycle is not an effective input for the evolved evolutionary SPEI model. In addition, performance appraisal analysis revealed that the MOGGP consistently exhibits parsimonious models, superior to its counterparts, and excels in addressing multi-objective hydrological modeling problems.

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来源期刊

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

5.40

自引率

2.70%

发文量

176

审稿时长

31.6 weeks

期刊介绍： Physics and Chemistry of the Earth is an international interdisciplinary journal for the rapid publication of collections of refereed communications in separate thematic issues, either stemming from scientific meetings, or, especially compiled for the occasion. There is no restriction on the length of articles published in the journal. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth incorporates the separate Parts A, B and C which existed until the end of 2001. Please note: the Editors are unable to consider submissions that are not invited or linked to a thematic issue. Please do not submit unsolicited papers. The journal covers the following subject areas: -Solid Earth and Geodesy: (geology, geochemistry, tectonophysics, seismology, volcanology, palaeomagnetism and rock magnetism, electromagnetism and potential fields, marine and environmental geosciences as well as geodesy). -Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere: (hydrology and water resources research, engineering and management, oceanography and oceanic chemistry, shelf, sea, lake and river sciences, meteorology and atmospheric sciences incl. chemistry as well as climatology and glaciology). -Solar-Terrestrial and Planetary Science: (solar, heliospheric and solar-planetary sciences, geology, geophysics and atmospheric sciences of planets, satellites and small bodies as well as cosmochemistry and exobiology).