Impact of public health interventions on the transmission of asymptomatic syphilis: A modeling study based on Yunnan Province, China (2008–2022)

IF 2.6 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111035

Ruiyu Chai , Yiting Zhang , Gongke Yang , Jiaxin Hao , Shifang Qu , Menghan Lu , Xiaoyue Sun , Tian Ma , Yong Li , Siyu Liu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Yunnan Province has high syphilis incidence, but research on asymptomatic syphilis remains limited. Understanding its transmission and trends is critical for control.

Methods

The Yunnan syphilis data (2008–2022) were sourced from the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System. After smoothing the data to correct for fluctuations caused by factors unrelated to the disease, we constructed an SEIR model with an asymptomatic compartment and calculated the basic reproduction number (

R_{0}

). Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed using Latin hypercube sampling and the partial rank correlation coefficient. Various scenarios assessed parameter impacts on new primary and asymptomatic cases.

Results

New primary syphilis cases in Yunnan increased from 2008 to 2012, showing a "U-shaped" pattern from 2013 to 2022. Sensitivity analyses indicated a strong correlation between

R_{0}

, the proportion of progressing to primary syphilis, and recovery rate. Without intervention, new primary and asymptomatic syphilis cases will rise, but reducing the progression rate and improving treatment recovery through comprehensive measures can effectively decrease them.

Conclusions

Although

R_{0}

decreased from 1.58 to 1.39 between the two stages, the syphilis transmission risk remains in Yunnan, particularly among asymptomatic individuals. Control measures should prioritize early detection and treatment of primary syphilis, particularly asymptomatic cases while targeting low-risk populations for effective control.

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来源期刊

Ecological Modelling 环境科学-生态学

CiteScore

5.60

自引率

6.50%

发文量

259

审稿时长

69 days

期刊介绍： The journal is concerned with the use of mathematical models and systems analysis for the description of ecological processes and for the sustainable management of resources. Human activity and well-being are dependent on and integrated with the functioning of ecosystems and the services they provide. We aim to understand these basic ecosystem functions using mathematical and conceptual modelling, systems analysis, thermodynamics, computer simulations, and ecological theory. This leads to a preference for process-based models embedded in theory with explicit causative agents as opposed to strictly statistical or correlative descriptions. These modelling methods can be applied to a wide spectrum of issues ranging from basic ecology to human ecology to socio-ecological systems. The journal welcomes research articles, short communications, review articles, letters to the editor, book reviews, and other communications. The journal also supports the activities of the [International Society of Ecological Modelling (ISEM)](http://www.isemna.org/).