Changes in gross primary productivity: A past and future approach to climate, land use and wildfires in the western Amazon, Brazil

IF 4.7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Development Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI:10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101150

Caio Gabriel Santos da Cruz , Rafael Coll Delgado , Marcos Gervasio Pereira , Henderson Silva Wanderley

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Abstract

Given its proportion of conserved forest, the state of Acre, located in the Brazilian Amazon, is important to the global carbon cycle. The aim of this study was to evaluate fire foci of wildfires and the behaviour of GPP from 2001 to 2021 under different types of land use and cover; the ARIMA model was used to generate the future series. A trend analysis between the variables of climate GPP and fire foci was carried out using the Mann-Kendall test. A negative correlation was seen between rainfall and the fire foci of wildfires, i.e. wildfires are more prevalent during the dry season. The highest concentration of fire foci was located close to urban areas and areas of pasture. With positive trends for GPP occurring during the driest three-month period (June-July-August), mean rates were generally higher during the driest months of the year. The future series indicates changes in land cover in the state, with a trend towards a reduction in forested areas and an increase in pasture and urban areas. Use of the ARIMA model for future series proved to be viable, and is an important product for monitoring fire risks and assessing the GPP in the short term.

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来源期刊

Environmental Development Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

8.40

自引率

1.90%

发文量

审稿时长

74 days

期刊介绍： Environmental Development provides a future oriented, pro-active, authoritative source of information and learning for researchers, postgraduate students, policymakers, and managers, and bridges the gap between fundamental research and the application in management and policy practices. It stimulates the exchange and coupling of traditional scientific knowledge on the environment, with the experiential knowledge among decision makers and other stakeholders and also connects natural sciences and social and behavioral sciences. Environmental Development includes and promotes scientific work from the non-western world, and also strengthens the collaboration between the developed and developing world. Further it links environmental research to broader issues of economic and social-cultural developments, and is intended to shorten the delays between research and publication, while ensuring thorough peer review. Environmental Development also creates a forum for transnational communication, discussion and global action. Environmental Development is open to a broad range of disciplines and authors. The journal welcomes, in particular, contributions from a younger generation of researchers, and papers expanding the frontiers of environmental sciences, pointing at new directions and innovative answers. All submissions to Environmental Development are reviewed using the general criteria of quality, originality, precision, importance of topic and insights, clarity of exposition, which are in keeping with the journal''s aims and scope.