Recessions, institutions, and regional exploration

Abstract

This paper investigates how recessions affect regional exploration, defined as innovation in technologies that extend beyond a region's existing knowledge base. By analyzing USPTO patent data from 2002 to 2015 across the United States, we demonstrate that regional exploration is counter-cyclical. We further examine whether changes in regional institutions – specifically, public R&D, university R&D, and banking – partially mediate the effect of recessions on regional exploration. Our results indicate that only the increasing predominance of international banks in regional banking systems serves a partial mediator. These findings broaden our understanding of how business cycles impact innovation, suggesting that recessions may encourage the creation of new technological trajectories within regions. Furthermore, our study identifies which institutional factors during recessions support regional exploration, enhancing a region's potential for future growth and adaptability.