A risk assessment method to quantify the effect of human reliability on storage tank safety combining optimized CREAM and dynamic Bayesian network

IF 4.7 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Safety Science Pub Date : 2025-01-28 DOI:10.1016/j.ssci.2025.106796

Xin Li , Fanliang Ge , Weidong Lin , Fuqiang Yang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Human error, as a major accident causal factor, can trigger an storage tank fire accident and delay the activation of active protection. In this work, a domino-human intervention model was proposed to assess the effect of human reliability on domino fire accidents. The optimized cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) was constructed to calculate the human error probability (HEP). The dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) of the domino-human intervention model was constructed by the probability of fire escalation and HEP. Among them, the analyzed network includes an initial accident scenario and a safety barrier protection scenario. Lastly, the domino-human intervention model was applied in a case study. The application of the model is validated in the case study, which confirms that HEP can reduce storage tank safety, as well as have a delayed effect on active protection. The proposed model will serve as an assessment tool for the effect of human reliability on domino accidents.

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结合优化的CREAM和动态贝叶斯网络，提出了一种量化人的可靠性对储罐安全影响的风险评估方法

人为失误是造成储罐火灾事故的主要原因之一，可引发储罐火灾事故，延迟主动保护的启动。本文提出了一个多米诺骨牌-人的干预模型来评估人的可靠性对多米诺骨牌火灾事故的影响。构建了优化的认知可靠性与误差分析方法（CREAM）来计算人为错误概率（HEP）。基于火灾升级概率和HEP，构建了多米诺人干预模型的动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）。其中，所分析的网络包括一个初始事故场景和一个安全屏障保护场景。最后，运用多米诺-人为干预模型进行实证研究。通过实例验证了该模型的应用，验证了HEP会降低储罐的安全性，并对主动保护产生延迟效应。该模型可作为评估人的可靠性对多米诺骨牌事故影响的工具。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Safety Science 管理科学-工程：工业

CiteScore

13.00

自引率

9.80%

发文量

335

审稿时长

53 days

期刊介绍： Safety Science is multidisciplinary. Its contributors and its audience range from social scientists to engineers. The journal covers the physics and engineering of safety; its social, policy and organizational aspects; the assessment, management and communication of risks; the effectiveness of control and management techniques for safety; standardization, legislation, inspection, insurance, costing aspects, human behavior and safety and the like. Papers addressing the interfaces between technology, people and organizations are especially welcome.