Regional forecasting of driving forces of CO2 emissions of transportation in Central Europe: An ARIMA-based approach

IF 4.7 3区工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Reports Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI:10.1016/j.egyr.2025.01.004

Ammar Al-lami , Ádám Török

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study addresses a critical research gap by analyzing transportation-related CO₂ emissions in Central Europe with a region-specific focus, incorporating diverse economic structures, energy dependencies, and policy challenges. Existing studies often neglect the interplay of regional dynamics and specific drivers of emissions. This research combines the KAYA Identity and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) models with ARIMA forecasting to uncover the distinct contributions of GDP intensity, population emissions intensity, energy intensity, and carbon emission intensity in five Central European countries: Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, and Austria. By integrating historical decomposition with robust time-series forecasting, the study provides novel insights into emissions drivers and long-term trends through 2050.

The results reveal substantial variation in emissions reduction trajectories. Austria successfully decouples economic growth from emissions, with a projected 7.6 % reduction in GDP-related emissions by 2050, driven by energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. Slovakia and Hungary exhibit moderate progress, while Poland faces significant challenges, including a forecasted 10.2 % increase in energy intensity and stagnation in carbon intensity, underlining the need for urgent policy reforms. ARIMA forecasts also highlight challenges in predicting emissions related to population and energy trends, particularly in Poland, due to high Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values.

This study integrates advanced modeling techniques to provide actionable insights into transportation decarbonization, renewable energy expansion, and energy efficiency. The findings highlight regional disparities, emphasizing tailored policies to achieve EU climate goals. This approach sets a new benchmark by bridging historical trends with future projections in a region-specific context

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来源期刊

Energy Reports Energy-General Energy

CiteScore

8.20

自引率

13.50%

发文量

2608

审稿时长

38 days

期刊介绍： Energy Reports is a new online multidisciplinary open access journal which focuses on publishing new research in the area of Energy with a rapid review and publication time. Energy Reports will be open to direct submissions and also to submissions from other Elsevier Energy journals, whose Editors have determined that Energy Reports would be a better fit.