Geothermal reservoir temperature prediction using hydrogeochemical data of Northern Morocco: A machine learning approach

IF 3.5 2区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS
Fatima Zahra Haffou , Lalla Amina Ouzzaouit , Abdelmounim Qarbous , Larbi Boudad
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Geothermal energy exploration depends on accurate estimation of reservoir temperatures. However, conventional methods are complex, costly and uncertain, especially those based on indirect measurements and assumptions. A dataset of 99 sets of hydrogeochemical and reservoir temperature data was created and five machine learning (ML) algorithms including decision tree regression (DTR), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), extremely randomised trees (XRT), natural gradient boosting (NGB) and deep neural network (DNN) were applied to address the issue. The models' predictive accuracy and generalisation potential in northern Morocco were evaluated by essential performance metrics including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R²). The XGBoost model proved superior with the highest R² of 0.9967 and the lowest MAE and RMSE of 0.7046 and 0.9992 respectively. Further, this study utilises Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) as an explainable technique to evaluate XGBoost predictive decisions. SHAP interpreted that SiO2 is the most important variable in predicting reservoir temperature. This study highlights the potential of ML for accurate reservoir temperature prediction, offering a reliable tool for model selection and advancing understanding of geothermal resources.
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来源期刊
Geothermics
Geothermics 工程技术-地球科学综合
CiteScore
7.70
自引率
15.40%
发文量
237
审稿时长
4.5 months
期刊介绍: Geothermics is an international journal devoted to the research and development of geothermal energy. The International Board of Editors of Geothermics, which comprises specialists in the various aspects of geothermal resources, exploration and development, guarantees the balanced, comprehensive view of scientific and technological developments in this promising energy field. It promulgates the state of the art and science of geothermal energy, its exploration and exploitation through a regular exchange of information from all parts of the world. The journal publishes articles dealing with the theory, exploration techniques and all aspects of the utilization of geothermal resources. Geothermics serves as the scientific house, or exchange medium, through which the growing community of geothermal specialists can provide and receive information.
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