Is there a market for micro-launch vehicles?

IF 2 4区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Space Policy Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI:10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101629

Felipe Motta , José Bezerra Pessoa Filho , Alison de Oliveira Moraes

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The dramatic miniaturization of electronics has led to the SmallSat Revolution. The number of operational satellites has increased from 769 in 2000 to 6905 in 2022. Owing to the deployment of constellations, 26,104 satellites weighing less than 500 kg, known as SmallSats, are expected to be launched between 2023 and 2032. Targeting this market niche, 42 initiatives are underway to develop micro-launch vehicles (LVs), that is, LVs capable of carrying less than 500 kg into orbit. Compared with larger LVs, the cost to launch SmallSats on micro-LVs can be 10 times higher. Consequently, most SmallSat operators opt to send their payloads into space aboard larger LVs using a modality called rideshare. In 2021, SpaceX's Falcon 9 flew 143 SmallSats belonging to different owners. In fact, only 4% of the 7026 SmallSats launched in the 2013–2022 period flew aboard micro-LVs. Based on these facts, the present study addresses the question regarding the existence of a commercial market for the numerous micro-LVs in development. There are a few cases in which micro-LVs may be the best option. One relates to the need to launch a SmallSat within a short period of notice, either for civilian or military reasons. Micro-LVs may also be used as experimental platforms on which new techniques, fabrication processes, flight hardware, and software can be developed for later use on larger LVs. It is worth noting that governments have invested in the development of micro-LVs and their launch facilities to foster the space industry of different countries, but the commercial prospects for micro-LVS are limited due to the much lower launch prices offered by larger vehicles.

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来源期刊

Space Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

36.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： Space Policy is an international, interdisciplinary journal which draws on the fields of international relations, economics, history, aerospace studies, security studies, development studies, political science and ethics to provide discussion and analysis of space activities in their political, economic, industrial, legal, cultural and social contexts. Alongside full-length papers, which are subject to a double-blind peer review system, the journal publishes opinion pieces, case studies and short reports and, in so doing, it aims to provide a forum for the exchange of ideas and opinions and a means by which authors can alert policy makers and international organizations to their views. Space Policy is also a journal of record, reproducing, in whole or part, official documents such as treaties, space agency plans or government reports relevant to the space community. Views expressed in the journal are not necessarily those of the editors or members of the editorial board.