Is there a market for micro-launch vehicles?

IF 2 4区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Space Policy Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI:10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101629

Felipe Motta , José Bezerra Pessoa Filho , Alison de Oliveira Moraes

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The dramatic miniaturization of electronics has led to the SmallSat Revolution. The number of operational satellites has increased from 769 in 2000 to 6905 in 2022. Owing to the deployment of constellations, 26,104 satellites weighing less than 500 kg, known as SmallSats, are expected to be launched between 2023 and 2032. Targeting this market niche, 42 initiatives are underway to develop micro-launch vehicles (LVs), that is, LVs capable of carrying less than 500 kg into orbit. Compared with larger LVs, the cost to launch SmallSats on micro-LVs can be 10 times higher. Consequently, most SmallSat operators opt to send their payloads into space aboard larger LVs using a modality called rideshare. In 2021, SpaceX's Falcon 9 flew 143 SmallSats belonging to different owners. In fact, only 4% of the 7026 SmallSats launched in the 2013–2022 period flew aboard micro-LVs. Based on these facts, the present study addresses the question regarding the existence of a commercial market for the numerous micro-LVs in development. There are a few cases in which micro-LVs may be the best option. One relates to the need to launch a SmallSat within a short period of notice, either for civilian or military reasons. Micro-LVs may also be used as experimental platforms on which new techniques, fabrication processes, flight hardware, and software can be developed for later use on larger LVs. It is worth noting that governments have invested in the development of micro-LVs and their launch facilities to foster the space industry of different countries, but the commercial prospects for micro-LVS are limited due to the much lower launch prices offered by larger vehicles.

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微型运载火箭有市场吗？

电子产品的急剧小型化导致了小卫星革命。运行卫星的数量从2000年的769颗增加到2022年的6905颗。由于星座的部署，预计在2023年至2032年期间将发射26104颗重量小于500公斤的卫星，即所谓的小卫星。针对这一细分市场，目前正在进行42项计划，以开发微型运载火箭（lv），即能够携带不到500公斤进入轨道的lv。与大型lv相比，在微型lv上发射小型卫星的成本可能高出10倍。因此，大多数小卫星运营商选择使用一种称为“拼车”的方式，将有效载荷送入更大的lv。2021年，SpaceX的猎鹰9号发射了143颗属于不同所有者的小型卫星。事实上，在2013年至2022年期间发射的7026颗小型卫星中，只有4%搭载了微型lv。在这些事实的基础上，本研究解决了关于开发中的许多微型lv是否存在商业市场的问题。在少数情况下，微型lv可能是最佳选择。其中一个涉及出于民用或军事原因需要在短时间内发射一颗小型卫星。微型lv也可以用作实验平台，在这个平台上可以开发新技术、制造工艺、飞行硬件和软件，以便以后在更大的lv上使用。值得注意的是，各国政府都投资了微型lvs及其发射设施的发展，以促进各国的航天工业，但由于大型运载工具的发射价格要低得多，微型lvs的商业前景有限。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Space Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

36.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： Space Policy is an international, interdisciplinary journal which draws on the fields of international relations, economics, history, aerospace studies, security studies, development studies, political science and ethics to provide discussion and analysis of space activities in their political, economic, industrial, legal, cultural and social contexts. Alongside full-length papers, which are subject to a double-blind peer review system, the journal publishes opinion pieces, case studies and short reports and, in so doing, it aims to provide a forum for the exchange of ideas and opinions and a means by which authors can alert policy makers and international organizations to their views. Space Policy is also a journal of record, reproducing, in whole or part, official documents such as treaties, space agency plans or government reports relevant to the space community. Views expressed in the journal are not necessarily those of the editors or members of the editorial board.