Macroeconomic asymmetries and their influence on fintech ecosystem growth: A global and regional perspective

Abstract

This study examines the asymmetric macroeconomic factors influencing the formation and growth of fintech ecosystems across 103 countries from 2005 to 2022, offering both global and regional perspectives. Using a fixed-effects negative binomial regression model as the primary methodology, the research identifies key macroeconomic drivers—such as GDP per capita, inflation, financial development, and real interest rates—whose impacts on fintech formation vary significantly across regions. Additionally, an adapted Asymmetric Error Correction Model (AECM) for count panel data is employed as a supplementary analysis to capture the differential effects of positive and negative changes in macroeconomic variables. The findings reveal how global crises, including the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic, have unevenly disrupted fintech growth, exposing regional vulnerabilities and opportunities. Europe's fintech expansion is primarily driven by investments in education and human capital, while Asia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are more responsive to macroeconomic stability. In contrast, African fintech ecosystems rely heavily on financial development to foster growth. Robustness checks with lagged variables further validate the temporal effects of these drivers, emphasizing their long-term implications. By exploring the role of macroeconomic asymmetries in shaping fintech ecosystems, this study provides critical insights for policymakers and investors aiming to enhance resilience and foster sustainable growth tailored to the distinct economic environments of each region.