Resilience-oriented safety barrier performance assessment in maritime operational risk management

Abstract

A resilience-oriented systematic methodology is developed to evaluate the performance of safety barriers in mitigating operational risk. The intricate interactions under multiple disruptions and the barrier-based risk management principles within fluctuating maritime operational systems are also investigated. The operational scenario is initially described using system theoretic process analysis (STPA), which identifies the constituent elements contributing to various resilience capabilities of barrier systems. Subsequently, qualitative resilience descriptions based on STPA are quantified into probabilistic flow network models integrated with Green’s functions and path statistical algorithm. This enables the calculation of the performance of barrier systems and individual barriers. Furthermore, targeted performance enhancement strategies are proposed considering the management and optimization principles of barriers. The proposed enhancements encompass enhancement in system design and management policies, reduction of system vulnerabilities, and optimization of resource allocation. The proposed methodologies hold significant potential for providing a comprehensive evaluation of barrier performance within a complex system.