Decarbonizing urban transport in Tokyo: Integrated scenarios of behavioral and technological transformations

Abstract

Addressing transport decarbonization is critical to achieving carbon–neutral cities, as urban transport is a major contributor to energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in cities. However, traditional integrated assessment models for developing future decarbonization scenarios commonly employ simplified, aggregated approaches to predict transport demand, without explicitly considering spatial resolution or behavioral details, while urban models simply represent energy technology choices and energy consumption structures. Therefore, we developed an integrated land use–transport–energy model to analyze decarbonization pathways for urban passenger transport in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Through scenario simulations based on the Avoid-Shift-Improve (A-S-I) framework, our research provides a comprehensive picture of the impact of behavioral transformations and technological advancements on energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and urban spatial structure. Simulations identified the decarbonization pathways of urban transport, thus providing urban planners and policymakers with the information needed to evaluate and optimize land use, transport, and energy policies for urban sustainability.