Air cargo traffic forecasting model: An empirical study in Vietnam using the SARIMA-X/(E)GARCH model

IF 4.1 2区工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS

Research in Transportation Business and Management Pub Date : 2024-12-07 DOI:10.1016/j.rtbm.2024.101268

Quang Hai Nguyen , Phu Quang Tran , Phươc Duc Ngo

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Modelling and forecasting air cargo traffic is an extremely necessary issue for air transport management. This study uses the combined model SARIMA-X/EGARCH to model and forecast Vietnam's air cargo traffic. Using quarterly data spanning 1999 to 2022 and key socio-economic factors affecting air cargo traffic, the empirical models reveal that international trade plays a more important positive role than GDP in explaining the volatility of air cargo traffic in Vietnam. In addition, the serious negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volatility of air cargo transport in Vietnam is also explained by the models. However, convincing evidence of the negative impact of crude oil prices on air cargo traffic in Vietnam has not been found. Different scenarios forecasting Vietnam's air cargo traffic to 2030 have also been proposed from the estimation results. These findings are the basis to support decision-making and policies to develop air cargo transport in Vietnam.

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来源期刊

Research in Transportation Business and Management Multiple-

CiteScore

7.10

自引率

8.30%

发文量

175

期刊介绍： Research in Transportation Business & Management (RTBM) will publish research on international aspects of transport management such as business strategy, communication, sustainability, finance, human resource management, law, logistics, marketing, franchising, privatisation and commercialisation. Research in Transportation Business & Management welcomes proposals for themed volumes from scholars in management, in relation to all modes of transport. Issues should be cross-disciplinary for one mode or single-disciplinary for all modes. We are keen to receive proposals that combine and integrate theories and concepts that are taken from or can be traced to origins in different disciplines or lessons learned from different modes and approaches to the topic. By facilitating the development of interdisciplinary or intermodal concepts, theories and ideas, and by synthesizing these for the journal''s audience, we seek to contribute to both scholarly advancement of knowledge and the state of managerial practice. Potential volume themes include: -Sustainability and Transportation Management- Transport Management and the Reduction of Transport''s Carbon Footprint- Marketing Transport/Branding Transportation- Benchmarking, Performance Measurement and Best Practices in Transport Operations- Franchising, Concessions and Alternate Governance Mechanisms for Transport Organisations- Logistics and the Integration of Transportation into Freight Supply Chains- Risk Management (or Asset Management or Transportation Finance or ...): Lessons from Multiple Modes- Engaging the Stakeholder in Transportation Governance- Reliability in the Freight Sector