Efficacy of Nature-based Solutions for coastal protection under a changing climate: A modelling approach

IF 4.2 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Coastal Engineering Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2025.104700

Massimiliano Marino, Sofia Nasca, Ahmad IK Alkharoubi, Luca Cavallaro, Enrico Foti, Rosaria Ester Musumeci

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are emerging as sustainable alternatives to conventional coastal defences against flooding and erosion. However, modelling applications to assess their efficacy often employ deterministic approaches based on historical storms, seldom incorporating effects of climate change. We argue that assessing coastal NbS performance for current and future scenarios is essential to ensure their long-term efficacy, adaptability, and potential synergies with climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. To this aim, we propose a modelling framework to investigate effectiveness of Nature-based coastal defences to mitigate climate change-driven, storm-induced flooding and erosion. An hydro-morphodynamic modelling chain (SWAN and XBeach) is setup to evaluate the effectiveness of two interventions — a dune revegetation and a seagrass meadow reconstruction — in reducing coastal inundation and shoreline retreat. The study investigates present and future what-if scenarios, by simulating storm conditions based on present, 4.5, and 8.5 W/m² radiative forcing scenarios. Dissipative effects of vegetation are modelled by providing their characteristics and spatial distribution through habitat maps. Simple flooding and erosion reduction efficacy indicators are computed to support the assessment. The approach is applied to a case study along the Sicily coast (Italy). Results reveal that the vulnerability of the area to flooding is predominantly driven by sea level rise rather than by increase in significant wave height. In this regard, both considered interventions effectively reduce flooded areas across all investigated scenarios up to 66%, while the reconstruction of the seagrass meadow also significantly reduces storm-driven eroded volumes. Its efficacy however is less significant under 2100-time horizon scenarios, underscoring the need for NbS strategies that may be flexible and responsive to changing climate conditions.

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气候变化下基于自然的海岸保护解决方案的有效性：建模方法

基于自然的解决方案（NbS）正在成为传统海岸防御洪水和侵蚀的可持续替代方案。然而，评估其效力的模拟应用通常采用基于历史风暴的确定性方法，很少考虑气候变化的影响。我们认为，评估沿海国家统计局在当前和未来情景下的表现对于确保其长期效力、适应性以及与气候适应和减缓战略的潜在协同作用至关重要。为此，我们提出了一个建模框架，以调查基于自然的海岸防御在缓解气候变化驱动的风暴引发的洪水和侵蚀方面的有效性。建立了一个水形态动力学模型链（SWAN和XBeach）来评估两种干预措施——沙丘植被和海草草甸重建——在减少沿海淹没和海岸线退缩方面的有效性。该研究通过模拟基于当前、4.5和8.5 W/m2辐射强迫情景的风暴条件，调查了当前和未来的假设情景。通过生境图提供植被的特征和空间分布，模拟了植被的耗散效应。通过计算简单的减洪减蚀效果指标来支持评价。该方法应用于西西里岛沿岸（意大利）的一个案例研究。结果表明，该地区对洪水的脆弱性主要是由海平面上升而不是由显著波高增加驱动的。在这方面，两种干预措施都有效地减少了所有调查情景中高达66%的淹没面积，而海草草甸的重建也显著减少了风暴驱动的侵蚀体积。然而，在2100年后的情景下，其有效性不那么显著，这强调了国家统计局战略的必要性，这些战略可能具有灵活性，并能对不断变化的气候条件作出反应。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Coastal Engineering 工程技术-工程：大洋

CiteScore

9.20

自引率

13.60%

发文量

审稿时长

3.5 months

期刊介绍： Coastal Engineering is an international medium for coastal engineers and scientists. Combining practical applications with modern technological and scientific approaches, such as mathematical and numerical modelling, laboratory and field observations and experiments, it publishes fundamental studies as well as case studies on the following aspects of coastal, harbour and offshore engineering: waves, currents and sediment transport; coastal, estuarine and offshore morphology; technical and functional design of coastal and harbour structures; morphological and environmental impact of coastal, harbour and offshore structures.