Habitat distribution modelling to identify areas of high conservation value under climate change for an endangered arid land tree Tecomella undulata

Abstract

The dryland ecosystems are fragile and have recently been subjected to paradigm shifts by climate change. To analyse this, we selected Tecomella undulata, an endangered arid land tree that adapts to the harsh climates of drylands. We collected 111 extant occurrence records of the species and utilised 16 environmental variables. The study identified that bio12, bio8, altitude, total nitrogen, CEC, and bio15 are the factors that significantly influence the distribution range and modelled species distribution ranges from LGM to 2100 using the Species Distribution Model. The model showed a decreased distribution from the past and predicts an increased distribution for the future. The reduced temperature and increased bio12 acted as limiting factors in the past, while the increase in bio15 and bio8 will act as enhancing factors for the future because of the warming effect due to climate change. The results predict that future climatic conditions will favour the species’ distribution. Therefore, the factors which might limit the species distribution will be anthropogenic, genetic, or pest-related, which was beyond the scope of our study and needs to be identified urgently to conserve the species. The study identified priority conservation areas where environmental factors suit the species. Still, most fall outside the current conservation sites, necessitating more regional conservation sites.