Enhancing the circular bioeconomy transition in Germany: A systematic scenario analysis

Abstract

This study employs a systematic-formalised scenario approach to examine critical drivers and interdependencies affecting the transition to a circular bioeconomy in Germany. By addressing current knowledge gaps, we highlight unique factors often absent from overarching scenario discussion in the research field. The work focuses on circularity, system integration efficiency, high-quality data input, and a culture of transparent scenario development. Our findings uncover previously unnoticed causal relationships and system interdependencies, offering new insights into the dynamics that can support or hinder potential transition pathways for a sustainable circular bioeconomy. A central outcome of this research is the identification of system-level interdependencies that influence sustainable resource management and the development of circular value chains. Furthermore, we advocate for a more detailed data level for bioeconomy technologies and offer targeted recommendations for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers. These recommendations guide the practical steps needed to foster a thriving circular bioeconomy at both national and international levels. Contributing to the broader discourse on scenario-based research, the systematic-formalised approach of influence and consistency analysis underscores the importance of transparent scenario conception in bioeconomy studies. This emphasis aims to enhance the quality and effectiveness of future research efforts and scenario interpretation. The research deepens our understanding of German pathways towards a circular bioeconomy and provides a framework for evaluating complex systems. This manuscript is designed to inspire readers and encourage them to broaden their perspectives on bioeconomy transition and apply new insights to diverse research contexts.