Driving factors and reduction paths dynamic simulation optimization of carbon dioxide emissions in China's construction industry under the perspective of dual carbon targets

Abstract

Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality are currently key research targets in various fields in China. These goals aim to mitigate the negative impacts of human activities on climate change while supporting China's pursuit of a low-carbon economy and promoting high-quality development. This study proposes a methodological framework to explore the carbon dioxide emission (CDE) driving factors and reduction paths dynamic simulation optimization in China's construction industry (CI) under the dual carbon target. Firstly, it carries out carbon accounting for the CI across the entire country and thirty provinces. Then, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model is introduced to analyze the driving factors of CDE in these research areas. Finally, four different emission reduction scenarios are designed, and a system dynamics model is constructed to dynamically simulate the CDE reduction paths of China's CI under the perspective of dual carbon targets. The results show that the indirect CDE of the CI, i.e. the CDE of related industries induced and driven by the CI, is always the most important component, accounting for more than 90 % of the CI; at the national level, the contribution of CDE from China's CI is dominated by the scale of the construction output, as well as by the intensity effect of the indirect CDE; The results of four scenarios show that under the “baseline scenario”, CDE of the CI is still 1017.02 Mt. away from the 2060 carbon neutral target. However, only the “carbon neutral scenario” is considered to be the optimal pathway, with its peak carbon emissions decreasing by 22.24 %, 11.11 % and 7.73 % from the “baseline scenario”, the “planning Scenario” and the “peak carbon scenario”, respectively. Therefore, there is a need for strict implementation of long-term carbon emission reduction targets on the one hand, and more flexible and innovative carbon emission reduction policies to stimulate carbon emission reduction potential on the other. This study provides a scientific basis for national low-carbon construction management, and it is necessary to strengthen multisectoral cooperation between the CI and its industrial chain in the future, accelerate the process of incorporating the carbon trading market into high-carbon industries such as construction materials, and achieve higher levels of sustainable development.