Determining factors and future trajectory of volatile organic compounds emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

Abstract

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region is one of the three main urban clusters in China with the largest economic aggregate, but facing increasingly severe air pollution including volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions. For the first time, this study employs the generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) to uncover the determining factors behind VOCs emissions changes, and applies the Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis to project the future trajectory of VOCs emissions in the YRD region. The results show that during 2006–2020, energy consumption scale and economic scale were the dominant drivers of the increment in VOCs emissions, accounting for 181.48 % and 119.20 % of the total VOCs emission increase, respectively. Conversely, emission intensity of output and emission intensity of energy were the major factors of VOCs reduction, leading to 83.22 % and 99.71 % of the total VOCs emission decrease, respectively. The effects of population scale, per capita emission, per capita GDP, and energy intensity on VOCs emissions changes were relatively weak. During 2020–2035, VOCs emissions will continue to grow in the YRD region under the business-as-usual scenario and high-emission scenario, while achieve the peak in 2030 in low-emission scenario. Based upon the results, several policy recommendations are proposed for mitigating VOCs emissions, including optimizing the energy structure, adopting suitable punitive measures, and constructing a unified VOCs emission standard and trading system.