Generation and resource potential of waste PV modules considering technological iteration: A case study in China

Abstract

The proper management of waste photovoltaic (PV) modules, an emerging solid waste, is the key to the “last mile” of the green and low-carbon development of the PV industry. This work simulated the lifespan distribution and installed capacity of PV modules by setting a three-stages technological iteration scenario and estimated the generation amount of waste PV modules in China. Under given failure scenarios, the resource potential of waste PV modules was further assessed. Results showed that waste PV modules will enter an explosive growth stage in China after 2030, and are expected to reach 126.37 GW or 6.31 million tons in 2041, then gradually decline until the next stage of large-scale conventional failure peak arrives. The cumulative resource potential during 2000–2050 is expected to reach 99.66 million tons. This work provides valuable information for China's waste PV modules management and recycling capacity building.