Geopolitics along the value chains

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论 Pub Date : 2025-01-17 DOI:10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102341

Renjing Chen , Chenxin Jin , Wei Jin , Bin Sheng , Guanxiang Wang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper examines the intricate interplay between geopolitics and global value chains (GVCs) in shaping international trade dynamics. By developing indices of voting similarity from United Nations General Assembly data, we quantify the influence of geopolitical relationships on trade flows and economic welfare. Utilizing a structural approach grounded in the World Input–Output Database, we estimate the elasticity of geopolitics across various sectors, distinguishing between intermediate goods and final consumption. Our findings reveal significant trade and welfare implications of geopolitical relationships, highlighting how political alignment or discord influences economic outcomes across countries. Through counterfactual analyses, we explore scenarios such as the Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, the Russo–Ukrainian War, and the China–United States Trade Disputes, providing insights into how geopolitical shifts could reshape GVCs and economic performance globally. The results underscore the importance of considering geopolitical factors in trade policy and economic strategy formulation.

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来源期刊

中国经济评论 ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

10.60

自引率

4.40%

发文量

380

期刊介绍： The China Economic Review publishes original works of scholarship which add to the knowledge of the economy of China and to economies as a discipline. We seek, in particular, papers dealing with policy, performance and institutional change. Empirical papers normally use a formal model, a data set, and standard statistical techniques. Submissions are subjected to double-blind peer review.