Global trends and projections of high BMI burden and its independent impact on atrial fibrillation and flutter.

IF 2.3 4区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

International Health Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI:10.1093/inthealth/ihaf005

YuBin He, YaPing Ren, YaYun Zhang, Zixiong Zhu, Xuewen Li

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: This study evaluates changes in the burden of high body mass index (BMI) and its impact on atrial fibrillation and flutter (AF/AFL) using the 2021 Global Burden of Disease database.

Methods: Mortality and disability-adjusted life years rates were analysed globally, considering age, sex, geography and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Decomposition and frontier analyses assessed the impact of epidemiological drivers and SDI on the burden. The nordpred model validated the predictions.

Results: The burden of high BMI is now 2.5 times greater than 30 y ago and will continue to increase over the next 20 y, heavily impacting cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. High BMI-related AF/AFL also poses a significant burden, especially in developed regions. Men's burden grows faster than women's. Decomposition analysis shows epidemiological changes mainly drive burden increases, while in women, population growth is more significant. Frontier analysis indicates that the gap between actual burden and theoretical optimal value has widened with increasing SDI, except in countries such as Bulgaria and the Czech Republic.

Conclusions: Over the past 30 y, the overall burden of high BMI and its impact on AF/AFL have increased significantly, highlighting the need for targeted public health strategies.

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高BMI负担的全球趋势和预测及其对房颤和扑动的独立影响。

背景：本研究使用2021年全球疾病负担数据库评估高体重指数（BMI）负担的变化及其对房颤和扑动（AF/AFL）的影响。方法：考虑年龄、性别、地理和社会人口指数（SDI），对全球死亡率和伤残调整生命年率进行分析。分解和前沿分析评估了流行病学驱动因素和SDI对负担的影响。nordpred模型验证了这些预测。结果：高BMI的负担现在是30年前的2.5倍，并将在未来20年内继续增加，严重影响心血管和代谢疾病。与高bmi相关的AF/AFL也造成了重大负担，特别是在发达地区。男性的负担比女性增长得快。分解分析表明，流行病学变化主要推动负担增加，而在妇女中，人口增长更为显著。边界分析表明，除了保加利亚和捷克等国，实际负担与理论最优值之间的差距随着SDI的增加而扩大。结论：在过去30年中，高BMI的总体负担及其对AF/AFL的影响显著增加，突出了有针对性的公共卫生策略的必要性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Health PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： International Health is an official journal of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. It publishes original, peer-reviewed articles and reviews on all aspects of global health including the social and economic aspects of communicable and non-communicable diseases, health systems research, policy and implementation, and the evaluation of disease control programmes and healthcare delivery solutions. It aims to stimulate scientific and policy debate and provide a forum for analysis and opinion sharing for individuals and organisations engaged in all areas of global health.