Efficacy of mitigation strategies for aquifer sustainability under climate change

Abstract

Groundwater systems play a pivotal role in ensuring food and water security while maintaining vital ecosystem functions. The depletion of numerous global aquifers, however, raises concerns regarding the sustainability of groundwater withdrawals and environmental flows. Despite efforts to mitigate this decline, there remains a striking gap in proving the effectiveness of these measures. Our research focuses on the karstic Edwards Aquifer system in Texas to assess how effectively current mitigation strategies are protecting groundwater levels and spring flows, which are essential for biodiversity and water security. Using counterfactual artificial intelligence, we address the critical question: ‘What would have happened and may happen in the absence of the mitigation measures?’. This approach offers deep insights into both historical impacts and future projections under intermediate- and high-emission climate scenarios. By simulating what might have happened and could happen in the future without these mitigation measures, our approach provides a robust analysis of the real-world benefits of groundwater management strategies, highlighting their role in enhancing climate resilience and ensuring the sustainability of aquifers. Mitigation policy is critical for counteracting aquifer depletion, but measuring its success can be difficult. A counterfactual approach employing artificial intelligence can provide novel insights into the efficacy of mitigation policies.