Intensification of climate change impacts on agriculture in the Cerrado due to deforestation

Abstract

Deforestation not only contributes to global warming but also induces changes in the regional climates that impact agriculture. Here, we analyse the effects of deforestation-induced climate change on the soy–maize double cropping of the Cerrado biome. Since the 1980s, there has been an average delay of 36 days in the start of the agricultural rainy season, a 36.7% reduction in total rainfall over the period and a 1.5 °C rise in the temperature in the biome. Of the 8.1 million ha of soy–maize double cropping, 99% experienced delays in the agricultural rainy season and 61% faced reduced rainfall. Those changes have contributed to more frequent and severe soybean and maize crop shortfalls. Delays in the onset of the agricultural rainy season, reductions in rainfall and increases in maximum air temperatures occur more frequently in areas with extensive native vegetation loss. To sustain agricultural productivity in the Cerrado, it is crucial to conserve and restore its native vegetation. Deforestation has the potential to alter regional precipitation cycles. In the Cerrado biome, clearing of native vegetation has led to shortfalls of staple crops due to a delayed agricultural rainy season.