Pliocene Warmth and Patterns of Climate Change Inferred From Paleoclimate Data Assimilation

IF 8.3 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
AGU Advances Pub Date : 2025-01-28 DOI:10.1029/2024AV001356
Jessica E. Tierney, Jonathan King, Matthew B. Osman, Jordan T. Abell, Natalie J. Burls, Ehsan Erfani, Vincent T. Cooper, Ran Feng
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

As the last time period when CO 2 ${\text{CO}}_{2}$ concentrations were near 400 ppm, the Pliocene Epoch (5.33–2.58 Ma) is a useful paleoclimate target for understanding future climate change. Existing estimates of global warming and climate sensitivity during the Pliocene rely mainly on model simulations. To reconstruct Pliocene climate and incorporate paleoclimate observations, we use data assimilation to blend sea-surface temperature (SST) proxies with model simulations from the Pliocene Modeling Intercomparison Project 2 and the Community Earth System Models. The resulting reconstruction, “plioDA,” suggests that the mid-Pliocene (3.25 Ma) was warmer than previously thought (on average 4.1°C warmer than preindustrial, 95% CI = 3.0°C–5.3°C), leading to a higher estimate of climate sensitivity (4.8°C per doubling of CO 2 ${\text{CO}}_{2}$ , 90% CI = 2.6°C–9.9°C). In agreement with previous work, the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient during the mid-Pliocene was moderately reduced ( 0.8 ${-}0.8$ °C, 95% CI = 2.3 ${-}2.3$ –0.4°C). However, this gradient was more reduced during the early Pliocene (4.75 Ma, 2.3 ${-}2.3$ °C, 95% CI = 3.9 ${-}3.9$ 1.1 ${-}1.1$ °C), a time period that is also warmer than the mid-Pliocene (4.8°C above preindustrial, 95% CI = 3.6°C–6.2°C). PlioDA reconstructs a fresh North Pacific and salty North Atlantic, supporting Arctic gateway closure and contradicting the presence of Pacific Deep Water formation. Overall, plioDA updates our view of global and spatial climate change during the Pliocene, as well as raising questions about the state of ocean circulation and the drivers of differences between the early and mid-Pliocene.

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由古气候资料同化推断的上新世温暖和气候变化模式
上新世(5.33-2.58 Ma)是我国历史上co2浓度接近400ppm的最后一个时期,是认识未来气候变化的一个有用的古气候指标。目前对上新世期间全球变暖和气候敏感性的估计主要依赖于模式模拟。为了重建上新世气候并纳入古气候观测,我们利用同化数据将海表温度(SST)代用物与上新世模式比对项目2和群落地球系统模式的模式模拟相融合。重建结果“plioDA”表明,上新世中期(3.25 Ma)比以前认为的要温暖(平均比工业化前高4.1°C, 95% CI = 3.0°C - 5.3°C),导致更高的气候敏感性估计(co2每加倍4.8°C, 90% CI = 2.6°C - 9.9°C)。中上新世期间,热带太平洋纬向海温梯度略有降低(−0.8${-}0.8$°C, 95% CI =−2.3${-}2.3$ - 0.4°C)。而在上新世早期(4.75 Ma,−2.3${-}2.3$°C,95% CI =−3.9${-}3.9$ -−1.1${-}1.1$°C),这一时期也比上新世中期(比工业化前高4.8°C, 95% CI = 3.6°C - 6.2°C)要温暖。PlioDA重建了一个新鲜的北太平洋和咸的北大西洋,支持北极门户关闭,并与太平洋深水形成的存在相矛盾。总的来说,plioDA更新了我们对上新世全球和空间气候变化的看法,同时也提出了关于海洋环流状况和上新世早期和中期差异驱动因素的问题。
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