Assessing the Impacts of Water Diversion Project on Water Resource System Sustainability

Abstract

Interbasin water diversion project has been considered as an effective way to assure water resource system sustainability. In order to assess the impacts of water diversion on sustainability, we propose a framework in terms of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. The estimated water availability from hydrological models and the projected water demand are input to a water resource allocation model. The water resource allocation model allocates the two available water sources (i.e., the local and the diverted water) in the water-receiving areas. The differences of the allocated water resources between these two water sources are figured out to quantify the impacts of water diversion on water resource system sustainability. The water-receiving area of Bailong River Water Diversion Project, located in Gansu, China, was selected as a case study. The results show that compared to the reference planning years, the runoff in future planning years will be reduced, while their water demands will almost increase under all scenarios. Although the current designed water diversion scheme is effective in increasing resilience, there is still potential for increasing resilience through optimizing the designed scheme. Further, the more unfavorable the water supply and demand conditions are, the larger the space for optimizing the system sustainability. This study can help understand the impacts of water diversion on water resource system sustainability in a changing environment.