{"title":"Flash Drought Teleconnection With the Large-Scale Climate Drivers in the Homogeneous Rainfall Regions of India","authors":"Akshay Pachore, Renji Remesan, Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath","doi":"10.1002/joc.8711","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n <p>Flash drought events can be characterised by the quick depletion of crop root zone soil moisture (rapid intensification) and hence can be termed as agricultural flash droughts. These events can have devastating impacts, such as increasing the risk of agricultural yield loss, heatwaves and increased wildfire risk, which further have cascading impacts on the socio-economic conditions. The regional hotspots of flash droughts are analysed for winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons over India from 1981 to 2020. We assess the impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the flash drought frequency (FDF: number of flash drought events). The causal connection of the FDF with the ENSO and IOD is analysed using the PCMCI (Peter and Clark's algorithm combined with the Momentary Conditional Independence) algorithm. The monsoon season (June–September) is found to be more prone to flash droughts with higher spatial/regional average values of total per pixel FDF during the 40-year period over the Central Northeast (~54) and West Central (~41) regions. It is observed that the fraction of the total number of flash droughts during the El Niño years (38.8%) is higher as compared with that in La Niña years (25.7%). It is also found that the co-occurrence of positive/negative IOD with the El Niño phase can alter the seasonal fraction of FDF over India, highlighting the high complexity in the ENSO–IOD interactions. The causal analysis shows that only the Southern Peninsula and West Central regions have significant direct and lagged causal links of average per pixel FDF with IOD. Whereas, similar (direct and lagged) causal connections are observed between the ENSO and IOD. This study reveals that flash droughts and their teleconnections vary greatly among the seasons and regions in India, limiting its accurate predictions and increasing the risk to agricultural communities.</p>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Climatology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.8711","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Flash drought events can be characterised by the quick depletion of crop root zone soil moisture (rapid intensification) and hence can be termed as agricultural flash droughts. These events can have devastating impacts, such as increasing the risk of agricultural yield loss, heatwaves and increased wildfire risk, which further have cascading impacts on the socio-economic conditions. The regional hotspots of flash droughts are analysed for winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons over India from 1981 to 2020. We assess the impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the flash drought frequency (FDF: number of flash drought events). The causal connection of the FDF with the ENSO and IOD is analysed using the PCMCI (Peter and Clark's algorithm combined with the Momentary Conditional Independence) algorithm. The monsoon season (June–September) is found to be more prone to flash droughts with higher spatial/regional average values of total per pixel FDF during the 40-year period over the Central Northeast (~54) and West Central (~41) regions. It is observed that the fraction of the total number of flash droughts during the El Niño years (38.8%) is higher as compared with that in La Niña years (25.7%). It is also found that the co-occurrence of positive/negative IOD with the El Niño phase can alter the seasonal fraction of FDF over India, highlighting the high complexity in the ENSO–IOD interactions. The causal analysis shows that only the Southern Peninsula and West Central regions have significant direct and lagged causal links of average per pixel FDF with IOD. Whereas, similar (direct and lagged) causal connections are observed between the ENSO and IOD. This study reveals that flash droughts and their teleconnections vary greatly among the seasons and regions in India, limiting its accurate predictions and increasing the risk to agricultural communities.
期刊介绍：
The International Journal of Climatology aims to span the well established but rapidly growing field of climatology, through the publication of research papers, short communications, major reviews of progress and reviews of new books and reports in the area of climate science. The Journal’s main role is to stimulate and report research in climatology, from the expansive fields of the atmospheric, biophysical, engineering and social sciences. Coverage includes: Climate system science; Local to global scale climate observations and modelling; Seasonal to interannual climate prediction; Climatic variability and climate change; Synoptic, dynamic and urban climatology, hydroclimatology, human bioclimatology, ecoclimatology, dendroclimatology, palaeoclimatology, marine climatology and atmosphere-ocean interactions; Application of climatological knowledge to environmental assessment and management and economic production; Climate and society interactions
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