Future Extreme Climate Events Threaten Alpine and Subalpine Woody Plants in China

Abstract

Increases in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme climate events (ECEs) are already impacting ecosystems, with many of the strongest effects associated with high-elevation areas. Most research on the ecological impacts of climate change has focused on climatic averages, which might differ from ECEs. Rhododendron, a diverse genus of alpine and subalpine woody plant, plays a crucial role in ecosystem stability and biodiversity in the biodiversity hotspots of the Himalayas and Hengduan Mountains. Here, we compared the predicted impacts of average climate with those including ECEs on 189 Rhododendron species in China for the historical period (1981–2010) and the future period (2071–2100) under two emissions scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). We analyzed changes in suitable habitat and patterns of species richness, weighted endemism, and phylogenetic diversity, identifying areas of coinciding high-risk as priority conservation areas. Inclusion of ECEs altered the projected areas of suitable habitat across all species from an increase of over 3% to a decrease exceeding 10%, with the distribution of most Rhododendron species strongly influenced by extremes of drought and high temperatures. We found fewer than 18% of high-risk areas of diversity loss were currently protected, with priority conservation areas mainly located in the Daxue, Daliang, Wumeng, and Jade Dragon Snow Mountains, as well as in the Nyingchi. We suggest inclusion of ECEs is critical when projecting changes in alpine and subalpine species distributions for effective conservation planning for climate change.