Geographical Distribution, Habitat Suitability and Epidemiological Factors of Tef Head Smudge Disease in the Western Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Abstract

Tef head smudge (Curvularia miyakei) is an economically important plant disease in the warm-humid regions of the Western Amhara Region, Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the geographical distribution, habitat suitability and epidemiological factors influencing the incidence and severity of Tef head smudge disease. The result of the study depicted that Tef head smudge disease is widely distributed across the region at varying levels of incidence and severity. Sowing date, soil type, altitude and growth stage are the key epidemiological factors contributing to the variability in the incidence and severity of Tef head smudge disease. Moreover, isothermally, temperature seasonality and minimum temperature of the coldest month bioclimatic variables significantly influenced Tef head smudge disease dynamics. Our study also predicted the current habitat suitability of Tef head smudge disease using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) species distribution model. The model was good in predicting Tef head smudge disease with an AUC (area under the Receiver Operating Curve) of 0.85. According to the model, 31.18%, 44.46% and 14.33% of the areas have highly suitable, moderately suitable and low suitable suitability respectively, whereas 10.03% of the areas have unsuitable suitability to Tef head smudge disease. This result underscores that a significant portion of the Western Amhara Region (75.64%) and similar agro-ecologies are at risk of Tef head smudge disease outbreaks. Therefore, it is important to implement targeted breeding programs and disease management strategies to ensure food security in regions where tef is a primary food source and Tef head smudge is prevalent.