Optimization and Simulation Approach to Determining Critical Combinations of Company Parameters

Abstract

We propose an optimization-simulation method for determining combinations of influences that make it possible to remove an organizational and technical system from a potentially unfavorable state. We demonstrate the solution using the example of the inverse problem of stress testing mature companies in traditional industries of the real sector. A condition for a company to be in a potentially unfavorable state is a projected negative cash balance. To determine changes that improve the forecast, mathematical programming methods solve the problem of maximizing the benefits from such changes—the difference between the predicted cash balance and the costs of changes. The results obtained can be applied when solving issues of stabilization under risk conditions: pandemics, economic sanctions, natural disasters, etc. A model example is given.