Critical Shelter Analysis Considering Social Vulnerability and Accessibility: A Case Study of Hurricane Michael Track Uncertainty

Abstract

This research focused on the evaluation of critical shelters in high-risk hurricane-impacted coastal areas of Florida integrating two key indices on evacuation accessibility to emergency facilities and social vulnerability. Prioritizing shelters for those with special needs, such as the elderly, disabled, or economically disadvantaged, was enabled through the consideration of social vulnerability whereas the strategic placement of critical shelters was ensured through accessibility analysis. The case study of Hurricane Michael was utilized to determine critical shelters in three populated regions of northwest Florida: Pensacola, Destin, and Panama City, according to 2018 National Hurricane Center predictions of Hurricane Michael tracks. While the accessibility index was estimated via floating catchment area method. By combining access to hurricane shelters with vulnerability and population data, new weights were derived to identify critical shelters by solving r-interdiction median problem for these areas. Findings provides possible emergency plans based on critical hurricane shelters that not only catered to vulnerable populations but also ensured broader community access. This integrated approach can empower emergency response agencies in optimizing shelter allocation and evacuation strategies, leading to minimized delays and enhanced safety for diverse populations during hurricanes.