Measuring the productivity effects of digital capital—a conceptual approach

Michael Grömling, Thomas Niebel
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Abstract

Productivity growth in the advanced economies has been slowing down for some time. This is surprising insofar as large-scale technological impulses are expected as a result of the digital revolution. An analysis for Germany points to significantly weakening productivity impulses from technological progress and in particular from capital formation. In order to understand the weaker capital stock effects, gross fixed capital formation is briefly examined according to different components. Starting from the established types of investment and capital, we discuss how the empirical coverage of capital as a production factor can be advanced. The focus is on a more broadly defined digital capital stock. Comprehensive indicators to describe the extent and development of the general digitization also offer conceptual starting points for defining and measuring digital capital. In this way, it could be possible to estimate what digital capital is actually available for domestic production, how it develops over time and, ultimately, what contributions to growth and productivity it makes. The paper lists a series of requirements necessary for an implementation. The dynamics of the capital stock depend on whether and to what extent current investments exceed retirements of fixed assets. In any case, rising investment per unit of labor does not necessarily indicate an increase in capital deepening. However, modern capital goods in particular are characterized by a high rate of innovation and correspondingly high retirements. This leads us to expect that even comparatively high investments based on a concept that has been comprehensively expanded in terms of digitization will not necessarily trigger correspondingly high capital stock and productivity impulses.

衡量数字资本对生产率的影响——一种概念性方法
发达经济体的生产率增长放缓已经有一段时间了。就数字革命带来的大规模技术冲击而言,这是令人惊讶的。一项针对德国的分析指出,技术进步(尤其是资本形成)对生产率的推动作用显著减弱。为了理解较弱的资本存量效应,根据不同的组成部分简要检查了固定资本形成总额。本文从已确立的投资和资本类型出发,讨论了资本作为生产要素的实证覆盖范围如何进一步扩大。重点是更广泛定义的数字资本股票。描述一般数字化程度和发展的综合指标也为定义和衡量数字资本提供了概念起点。通过这种方式,就有可能估计出国内生产实际可用的数字资本,它如何随着时间的推移而发展,并最终对增长和生产力做出了什么贡献。本文列出了实现所需的一系列需求。资本存量的动态取决于当前投资是否以及在多大程度上超过了固定资产的退役。无论如何,单位劳动力投资的增加并不一定表明资本深化的增加。然而,现代资本品的特点是创新率高,相应的退休率也高。这使我们期望,即使是基于数字化方面全面扩展的概念的相对较高的投资,也不一定会引发相应的高资本存量和生产力冲动。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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