Evaluating the performance of intensity prediction equations for the Italian area

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI:10.1007/s10518-024-02071-z

Andrea Antonucci, Giovanni Lanzano, Andrea Rovida, Sara Sgobba, Vera D’Amico, Augusto Antonio Gomez-Capera

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this study, we evaluate the performance of five recent Intensity Prediction Equations (IPEs) valid for Italy comparing their predictions with intensities documented at Italian localities. We build four different testing datasets using the data contained in the most recent versions of the Italian Parametric Earthquake Catalogue CPTI15 and Macroseismic Database DBMI15 and we estimate the residuals between observed and predicted intensity values for all the selected IPEs. The results are then analyzed using a measure-oriented approach to score each model according to the goodness of model prediction and a diagnostic-oriented approach to investigate the trend of the residuals as a function of the different variables. The results indicate the capability of all the tested IPEs to reproduce the average decay of macroseismic intensity in Italy although with a general underestimation of high-intensity values. In addition, an in-depth investigation of the spatial and temporal patterns of the event residual term, computed using the best predictive model, is carried out. Lastly, we provide some hints for the selection of calibration datasets for the development of future intensity attenuation models.

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来源期刊

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 工程技术-地球科学综合

CiteScore

8.90

自引率

19.60%

发文量

263

审稿时长

7.5 months

期刊介绍： Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering presents original, peer-reviewed papers on research related to the broad spectrum of earthquake engineering. The journal offers a forum for presentation and discussion of such matters as European damaging earthquakes, new developments in earthquake regulations, and national policies applied after major seismic events, including strengthening of existing buildings. Coverage includes seismic hazard studies and methods for mitigation of risk; earthquake source mechanism and strong motion characterization and their use for engineering applications; geological and geotechnical site conditions under earthquake excitations; cyclic behavior of soils; analysis and design of earth structures and foundations under seismic conditions; zonation and microzonation methodologies; earthquake scenarios and vulnerability assessments; earthquake codes and improvements, and much more. This is the Official Publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering.