Evaluating the performance of intensity prediction equations for the Italian area

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI:10.1007/s10518-024-02071-z

Andrea Antonucci, Giovanni Lanzano, Andrea Rovida, Sara Sgobba, Vera D’Amico, Augusto Antonio Gomez-Capera

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this study, we evaluate the performance of five recent Intensity Prediction Equations (IPEs) valid for Italy comparing their predictions with intensities documented at Italian localities. We build four different testing datasets using the data contained in the most recent versions of the Italian Parametric Earthquake Catalogue CPTI15 and Macroseismic Database DBMI15 and we estimate the residuals between observed and predicted intensity values for all the selected IPEs. The results are then analyzed using a measure-oriented approach to score each model according to the goodness of model prediction and a diagnostic-oriented approach to investigate the trend of the residuals as a function of the different variables. The results indicate the capability of all the tested IPEs to reproduce the average decay of macroseismic intensity in Italy although with a general underestimation of high-intensity values. In addition, an in-depth investigation of the spatial and temporal patterns of the event residual term, computed using the best predictive model, is carried out. Lastly, we provide some hints for the selection of calibration datasets for the development of future intensity attenuation models.

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评价意大利地区强度预测方程的性能

在本研究中，我们评估了意大利最近有效的五个强度预测方程（IPEs）的性能，并将其预测与意大利各地记录的强度进行了比较。我们使用最新版本的意大利参数地震目录CPTI15和宏观地震数据库DBMI15中包含的数据构建了四个不同的测试数据集，我们估计了所有选定的ipe的观测和预测强度值之间的残差。然后对结果进行分析，采用面向度量的方法根据模型预测的优度对每个模型进行评分，并采用面向诊断的方法研究残差作为不同变量的函数的趋势。结果表明，尽管普遍低估了高烈度值，但所有测试的IPEs都有能力再现意大利大震烈度的平均衰减。此外，对事件残差项的时空格局进行了深入的研究，并利用最佳预测模型进行了计算。最后，为今后强度衰减模型的发展提供了一些选择校准数据集的提示。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 工程技术-地球科学综合

CiteScore

8.90

自引率

19.60%

发文量

263

审稿时长

7.5 months

期刊介绍： Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering presents original, peer-reviewed papers on research related to the broad spectrum of earthquake engineering. The journal offers a forum for presentation and discussion of such matters as European damaging earthquakes, new developments in earthquake regulations, and national policies applied after major seismic events, including strengthening of existing buildings. Coverage includes seismic hazard studies and methods for mitigation of risk; earthquake source mechanism and strong motion characterization and their use for engineering applications; geological and geotechnical site conditions under earthquake excitations; cyclic behavior of soils; analysis and design of earth structures and foundations under seismic conditions; zonation and microzonation methodologies; earthquake scenarios and vulnerability assessments; earthquake codes and improvements, and much more. This is the Official Publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering.