Application of GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis of hydro-geomorphological factors for flash flood susceptibility mapping in Bangladesh

Abstract

Flash floods are one of the most prevalent natural disasters, triggering deadly damage to homesteads, crops, infrastructure, road networks, communications, and the natural environment in the Haor (Wetland) region of Bangladesh. The purpose of the study aims to identify eleven (11) hydro-geomorphological driving factors, namely elevation, slope, aspect, rainfall, land use and land cover (LULC), lithology, soil type, topographic wetness index (TWI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), distance from the river, and drainage density, which are being explored for mapping flood-prone areas. This research has produced a flash flood susceptibility map using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Analytical Network Process (ANP), which are interactive decision-making approaches under multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in ArcGIS 10.8. The findings of this study showed that the susceptibility to flood hazards differs significantly among the seven Haor districts. As a result of the ANP and AHP, a more significant proportion of the Haor region is moderately susceptible to flooding (8685.09–9275.15 sq. km.), whereas 35.34 %–38.32 % (7069.70–7668.67 sq. km.) accounts for high susceptible to flooding. Furthermore, 200 flood locations were identified in the northeast Haor region, where 140 (70 %) randomly selected floods were used for training, and the remaining 60 (30 %) were employed for validation purposes. The validation results showed that the AHP model had greater prediction accuracy (the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) = 92.1 %) than the ANP (AUROC = 88.5 %) model. Therefore, the study findings can be helpful for researchers, academics, policymakers, and planners for sustainable flood mitigation strategies, particularly in Haor areas.