Valuation of stochastic occupancy levels and public transport policy options during the COVID pandemic

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate passengers’ valuations of occupancy levels and public transport policy options during the COVID-pandemic. An important objective of the research is to understand how passengers value uncertainty in the occupancy level for their trip.

We estimate a mixed logit model, using stated choice experiments among 195 respondents. One of the features of the stated choice experiments is a simple representation of probabilities for different occupancy levels.

Our results suggest that the highest occupancy level dominates passengers’ choices, regardless of probability. This implies that respondents have a strong aversion to high occupancy rates, even at low probabilities. In terms of policy options, we find that respondents value blocked seats positively, which is consistent with the aversion to high occupancy rates. The obligation to wear face masks and reserving seats for travelers in vital professions are also valued positively.

Blocked seats, obligatory face masks and reserving seats for vital professions are viable policy instruments in a future pandemic. Moreover, the strong aversion to high occupancy rates may also be relevant for public transport policy in times without pandemic. Further research could be aimed at testing the relevance and order of magnitude of this finding in the post-COVID era.