Multi-scenario urban growth boundaries and trade-offs among land use functions

Abstract

Urban Growth Boundaries (UGBs) have been widely adopted in China to halt urban sprawl and safeguard ecosystem functions. Previous studies on UGB delineation have focused on quantity and distribution of future urban land, often neglecting the policy implications for optimizing the layout of ecological, agricultural, and urban spaces. This study employs a Cellular Automata and Agent-Based Model (CA-ABM) to simulate multi-scenario UGBs in Jiaxing city, China, for 2035, by integrating human decision-making process and trade-offs and synergies among multiple Land Use Functions (LUFs). We find a complex interplay of urban development, agricultural productivity, and ecological preservation. Specifically, results underscore overall trade-offs between urban development and the maintenance of agricultural and ecological functions, yet concurrently demonstrate overall synergies between agricultural and ecological functions. Further analysis reveals spatial variability in the trade-offs and synergies, which significantly impacts landscape composition and land-use suitability within UGBs. The Ecosystem and Food Security Scenario (EFS) facilitates a compact urban morphology, effectively balancing agricultural and ecological needs. Governments, residents, and industrial agents demonstrate distinct preferences in terms of willingness for urban growth. These insights emphasize the need for integrated planning that considers differentiated LUF interactions and public involvement to achieve sustainable urban growth.