A fire following earthquake spread model considering building height and its application to real-world events

Abstract

Fire following earthquake is one of the most destructive secondary disasters induced by earthquakes. Current spread models for fire following earthquake generally simulate fires by treating an individual building as a single analytical element and disregarding the influence of building height and topography. In real-world cases, the building heights in the neighborhood vary, which significantly complicating the FFE spreading. The height disparities between structures may directly impact the temperature increase effects of a burning building on its surroundings. Thus, this study proposes a simulation method for fire spread following earthquake that considers building height. The analytical approach treats each building story as an analysis element and incorporates the absolute height of each floor (defined as the summation of building height and site elevation) into the spread model, thereby accounting for the influence of height disparities on fire propagation. To validate the effectiveness of this method, comparative validation studies are conducted using the 1995 Great Hanshin Earthquake and the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake. The proposed model achieves an accuracy of 99.3 % in the 1995 Great Hanshin Earthquake case and 90.9 % in the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake case. Results also indicate that incorporating building height leads to accelerated fire spread and expanded spread range, more accurately capturing the complex dynamics of fire spread following earthquake in building clusters, particularly in scenarios with substantial variations in building heights, thus providing a scientific foundation for urban disaster prevention, mitigation, and fire control strategies.